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| The Territorial Integrity of Indonesia: The Likelihood of Disintegration
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In recent years, separatist movements have increasingly threatened the territorial integrity and unity of the diverse archipelago. The question of the unity of Indonesia has an impact on the stability of particular regions and the entire country, as well as on the stability of all of Southeast Asia. This section discusses the likelihood and desirability of retaining the territorial integrity of Indonesia.
The disintegration of Indonesia is not as likely as is often suggested by Indonesians and outsiders, at least in the short term. Still, the lack of credible data and reliable predictions means that the issue should not simply be ignored. Many analysts do not believe that East Timor’s recent independence will boost separatist sentiment beyond the short term. Historical and cultural differences make East Timor a special case and an unsuitable precedent for the separatist aspirations of other regions.
The major political actors are united in their opposition to any form of disintegration. The unity of Indonesia is one of the few rallying points within the political elite. This elite tends to view “separatism” as a betrayal of the struggle for the independence of the Indonesian nation and of the heroes who sacrificed their lives for that goal. The army is likely to remain among those most opposed to separation.
The incentives for secession are differently structured for resource-rich and resource-poor areas. Poor areas are less likely to want to secede, as they would form seriously disadvantaged states and would be dependant on transfers from richer areas. The provinces most likely to break away include Aceh in the medium term and West Papua (Irian Jaya) in the much longer term. Other resource-rich areas such as Riau and East Kalimantan have no long-established independence movements.
However, the economic viability of these future states is not the only consideration. Battles for independence are also fueled by an emotional drive for freedom, regardless of the economic consequences.
It seems that separatist movements are unlikely to fragment the Indonesian state in the coming years; however, if a total collapse of the political center were unexpectedly to occur, state fragmentation could become a more likely prospect.
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